Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Economic Feasibility of Establishing Wind Power Plant in Kerman, Iran | ||
| Renewable Energy Research and Applications | ||
| دوره 1، شماره 2، مهر 2020، صفحه 247-260 اصل مقاله (1 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22044/rera.2020.9681.1035 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| M.R. Amirrud* ؛ M. Shahin | ||
| School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Wind energy is considered as a precious replacement for fossil fuels in electricity generation. In this regard, many governments (e.g. Iran) tend to support development of this type of renewable energy source. However, fluctuations in Iran’s economic conditions and uncertainty in available wind power increase the risk of investment. In this investigation a methodology is used to address the uncertainty in wind conditions using probability of occurrence of minimum wind speed. In addition, a feasibility study is considered for economic assessment of establishing a wind turbine power plant in Kerman province, Iran. A sensitivity analysis is developed to analyze the effect of changes in inflation and currency rates on the project economic viability. Results show that the proposed site enjoys excellent wind power potential with respect to wind power density of 971.4 W/m2 at 100 meters height. Economic analysis indicates that the project is viable when its budget is supplied through governmental resources (providing US dollar at governmental rate). However, sensitivity analysis reveals that the project is no longer viable when its budget is supplied through foreign exchange market (providing US dollar at market currency rate). Therefore, this paper suggests that if government tends to support development of wind energy in Iran, it is necessary to either provide the project budget by governmental resources (4200 T/$) or buy electricity higher than 1391.6 T/kWh (845.6 T/kWh more than current feed-in-tariff). Furthermore, nonlinear relationship between net present value (NPV) and inflation shows that reduction in inflation can significantly improve the investment payoff. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Wind energy؛ Wind potential؛ Wind uncertainty؛ Wind economic؛ Weibull distribution | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] Vanek, F., Albright, L., & Angenent, L. (2008). Energy systems engineering. McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing. [2] Shaahid, S.M. & Elhadidy, M.A. (2003). Opportunities for utilization of stand-alone hybrid (photovoltaic+ diesel+ battery) power systems in hot climates. Renewable Energy, Vol. 28, No. 11, pp. 1741-1753. [3] Tina, G., Gagliano, S., & Raiti, S. (2006). Hybrid solar/wind power system probabilistic modelling for long-term performance assessment. Solar energy, Vol. 80, No. 5, pp. 578-588. [4] Perez, R. & Perez, M. (2009). A fundamental look at energy reserves for the planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Vol. 50, No. 2. [5] BP statistical review of world energy. (2019). BP. [6] The International energy agency (IEA) website (2020), Available: https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/renewables. [7] The Global wind atlas website (2020), Available: https://globalwindatlas.info/area/Islamic%20Republic%20of%20Iran. [8] Mostafaeipour, A. et al. (2011). Wind energy feasibility study for city of Shahrbabak in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 2545-2556. [9] Mohammadi, K. & Mostafaeipour, A. (2013). Economic feasibility of developing wind turbines in Aligoodarz, Iran. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 76, pp. 645-653. [10] Mohammadi, K. et al. (2014). Electricity generation and energy cost estimation of large-scale wind turbines in Jarandagh, Iran. Journal of Energy, Vol. 2014. [11] Mostafaeipour, A. (2013). Economic evaluation of small wind turbine utilization in Kerman, Iran. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 73, pp. 214-225. [12] Mostafaeipour, A., et al. (2014). An analysis of wind energy potential and economic evaluation in Zahedan, Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 30, pp. 641-650. [13] Nedaei, M., Assareh, E., & Biglari, M. (2014). An extensive evaluation of wind resource using new methods and strategies for development and utilizing wind power in Mah-shahr station in Iran. Energy conversion and management, Vol. 81, pp. 475-503. [14] Fazelpour, F. et al. (2015). Assessment of wind energy potential and economics in the north-western Iranian cities of Tabriz and Ardabil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 45, pp. 87-99. [15] Fazelpour, F., Markarian, E., & Soltani, N. (2017). Wind energy potential and economic assessment of four locations in Sistan and Balouchestan province in Iran. Renewable Energy, Vol. 109, pp. 646-667. [16] Soltani, N. & Fazelpour, F. (2016). Evaluation of wind energy potential and economics for the city of Kahnuj in Kerman Province, Iran. In 2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering (EEEIC). IEEE, pp. 1-6. [17] Hosseinalizadeh, R. et al. (2017). Economic analysis of small wind turbines in residential energy sector in Iran. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, Vol. 20, pp. 58-71. [18] Minaeian, A. et al. (2017). Exploring economy of small communities and households by investing on harnessing wind energy in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 74, pp. 835-847. [19] Ehyaei, M.A., Ahmadi, A., & Rosen, M.A. (2019). Energy, exergy, economic and advanced and extended exergy analyses of a wind turbine. Energy conversion and management, Vol. 183, pp. 369-381. [20] Mostafaeipour, A. & Abarghooei, H. (2008). Harnessing wind energy at Manjil area located in north of Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 12, No. 6, pp. 1758-1766. [21] Rajabi, M.R. & Modarres, R. (2008). Extreme value frequency analysis of wind data from Isfahan, Iran. Journal of wind Engineering and industrial Aerodynamics, Vol. 96, No. 1, pp. 78-82. [22] Mostafaeipour, A. (2010). Feasibility study of harnessing wind energy for turbine installation in province of Yazd in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 93-111. [23] Keyhani, A. et al. (2010). An assessment of wind energy potential as a power generation source in the capital of Iran, Tehran. Energy, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 188-201. [24] Saeidi, D. et al. (2011). Feasibility study of wind energy potential in two provinces of Iran: North and South Khorasan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 8, pp. 3558-3569. [25] Mirhosseini, M., Sharifi, F., & Sedaghat, A. (2011). Assessing the wind energy potential locations in province of Semnan in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 449-459. [26] Rahimzadeh, F. et al. (2011). Wind speed variability over Iran and its impact on wind power potential: a case study for Esfehan Province. Meteorological Applications, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 198-210. [27] Mojtaba, N. (2012). Wind resource assessment in Abadan airport in Iran. International journal of renewable energy development, vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 87-97. [28] Nedaei, M. (2012). Wind energy potential assessment in Chalus county in Iran. International Journal of Renewable Energy Research (IJRER), Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 338-347. [29] Mohammadi, K. & Mostafaeipour, A. (2013). Using different methods for comprehensive study of wind turbine utilization in Zarrineh, Iran. Energy conversion and management, Vol. 65, pp. 463-470. [30] Biglari, M. et al. (2013). An initial evaluation of wind resource in the Port of Chabahar in South East of Iran. Glob J Sci Eng Technol, Vol. 2, No. 14, pp. 142-148. [31] Mohammadi, K., Mostafaeipour, A., & Sabzpooshani, M. (2014). Assessment of solar and wind energy potentials for three free economic and industrial zones of Iran. Energy, Vol. 67, pp. 117-128. [32] Tizpar, A., et al. (2014). Wind resource assessment and wind power potential of Mil-E Nader region in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Iran–Part 1: Annual energy estimation. Energy conversion and management, Vol. 79, pp. 273-280. [33] Nedaei, M. (2014). Wind resource assessment in Hormozgan province in Iran. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, Vol. 33,No. 3, pp. 650-694. [34] Arefi, F., Moshtagh, J., & Moradi, M. (2014). The Wind Energy Potential of Kurdistan, Iran. International scholarly research notices, Vol. 2014. [35] Alavi, O., Sedaghat, A., & Mostafaeipour, A. (2016). Sensitivity analysis of different wind speed distribution models with actual and truncated wind data: a case study for Kerman, Iran. Energy conversion and management, Vol. 120, pp. 51-61. [36] Dabbaghiyan, A. et al. (2016). Evaluation of wind energy potential in province of Bushehr, Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 55, pp. 455-466. [37] Pishgar-Komleh, S.H. & Akram, A. (2017). Evaluation of wind energy potential for different turbine models based on the wind speed data of Zabol region, Iran. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, Vol. 22, pp. 34-40. [38] The Renewable energy and energy efficiency organization (SATBA) website (2019), Available: http://www.satba.gov.ir/en/home. [39] Friedman, P.D. (2010). Evaluating economic uncertainty of municipal wind turbine projects. Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 484-489. [40] Manwell, J.F., McGowan, J.G., & Rogers, A.L. (2010). Wind energy explained: theory, design and application. John Wiley & Sons. [41] Evans, M., Hastings, N., & Peacock, B. (2001). Statistical distributions. IOP Publishing. [42] Morgan, E.C. et al. (2011). Probability distributions for offshore wind speeds. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 15-26. [43] Jamil, M. (1994). Wind power statistics and evaluation of wind energy density. Wind Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 227-240. [44] Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series, Wind Power. (2012). IRENA. [45] Mathew, S. (2006). Wind energy: fundamentals, resource analysis and economics. Springer. [46] The Iranian national tax administration website (2019), Available: https://www.evat.ir/. [47] The National development fund of Islamic Republic of Iran website (2019), Available: http://en.ndf.ir/About-NDF/By-Law. [48] The in2013dollars website (2019), Available: https://www.in2013dollars.com/inflation-rate-in-2019. [49] The Statistical center of Iran, Producer price index report in Iran - Spring 2018 website (2019), Available: https://www.amar.org.ir/english. [50] The Central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran website (2019), Available: https://www.cbi.ir/ExRates/rates_en.aspx. [51] Sedaghat, A., Assad, M.E.H., & Gaith, M. (2014). Aerodynamics performance of continuously variable speed horizontal axis wind turbine with optimal blades. Energy, Vol. 77, pp. 752-759. [52] Abidoye, L.K., et al. (2020). Effects of environmental and turbine parameters on energy gains from wind farm system: Artificial neural network simulations. Wind Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 181-195. [53] The NREL classes of wind power density website (2020), Available: https://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/tables/1-1T.html. [54] Gan, F. & Koehler, K. (1990). Goodness-of-Fit Tests Based on P-P Probability Plots. Technometrics, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 289-303. [55] Garcia, A. et al. (1998). Fitting wind speed distributions: a case study. Solar energy, Vol. 62, No. 2, pp. 139-144. [56] Ramírez, P. & Carta, J.A. (2006). The use of wind probability distributions derived from the maximum entropy principle in the analysis of wind energy. A case study. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 47, No. 15-16, pp. 2564-2577. [57] Carta, J.A., Ramirez, P., & Velazquez, S. (2009). A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 933-955. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 3,023 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 722 |
||